Milwaukee Metropolitan Area October Home Sales Up 3.5%

Sales of homes in the 4-county Metropolitan Milwaukee real estate market increased 3.5% compared to the same period in 2012. There were a total of 1,434 homes sold, compared to 1,386 last October.
October Sales

gmar october 2014 sales 419

The 3.5% increase in regional sales may be a sign that the marketplace is settling into a more gradual sales pace. Rather than seeing large, double-digit increases ? fueled by discounts and low prices ? steady sales increases would point to a market with competitive pricing and neither buyers nor sellers dominating a transaction.

Cumulative sales through October totaled 15,351, putting the market on track to end the year with just under 18,000 sales.

Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties saw a moderate increase in sales in October, whereas Washington and Ozaukee Counties saw insignificant decreases in the number of units sold (both counties had one less sale than the previous year).

All are following a ?normal? pattern of sales for the year, characterized by low sales in the first few months of the year (as listings are added to the market, increasing inventory). In spring, sales take off, consuming inventory through the summer, ending about Labor Day. The fall sees a gradual trailing off of sales to the end of the year (and a rise in inventory).

Homes placed on the market increased for the seventh month in a row in October, going up 8.6% ? the first time the market has seen a sustained period of increased listings since before the recession.
October Listings

gmar october 2014 listings 420

Despite the increase in listing activity, the market?s inventory level was 7.5-months, down slightly from September?s 7.6 level. A year ago, the inventory level was at 11.4-months. If the 1,177 listings with an active offer are subtracted from current listings, the inventory level drops to 5.3-months.

The 8.6% increase in listings is a sign of a healthy real estate market, as sellers trust they will receive a competitive price for their house, but the number of current listings without an active offer indicates the market has room for more.

The market is proving to be very ?balanced,? in contrast to the wild swings we saw over the last decade. Sellers should not assume they will get whatever they ask for, and buyers should know the days of deep discounts are gone; a REALTORS? guidance will help both parties purchase or sell a property for a fair price.

Provided by the Greater Milwaukee Association of Realtors

Behind the 2013 Land Report 100: America’s Largest Landowners Double Down

Investing in rural, undeveloped land continues to be a popular strategy among the affluent, according to the 2013 Land Report 100, the latest annual survey and ranking of the largest private landowners in the United States. Increasingly seen as a “safe deposit box with a view,” acreages continue to be purchased by leading landowners at solid rates. In 2012, the country’s top 100 landowners cumulatively increased their private holdings by 700,000 acres to a total of 33 million acres, nearly 2 percent of U.S. land mass.

Liberty Media Chairman John Malone and his 2.2 million acres under ownership topped the Land Report 100 list, which focuses exclusively on deeded acreage owned by individuals, families, family-owned companies and family-controlled foundations – excluding leased and public lands. Malone edged out Ted Turner, who currently possesses more than 2 million land acres. Rounding out the top five in order were: the Emmerson family, Brad Kelley and the Irving family.

“It’s refreshing to continue seeing large landowners find value in aggregating their land for conservation and agriculture purposes versus parceling it out and developing it,” said land broker Greg Fay, founder of Fay Ranches. “Everyone at Fay Ranches congratulates leading landowners for their commitments to the land, to conserving our wild places and preserving our agricultural heritage.”

This year saw a shake-up in the top ten as Stan Kroenke elevated his position from No. 10 to No. 8 after his recent purchase of the historic Broken O Ranch, described nationally as “one of the largest agricultural operations in the Rocky Mountain West.” Kroenke also owns the 540,000-acre Q Creek Ranch, the largest contiguous ranch in the Rocky Mountains.

There are several landowners new to this year’s 100 list, including No. 28, Dan and Farris Wilks, billionaire brothers who recently purchased more than 400 square miles of land, mostly in the eastern half of Montana. Oil field services entrepreneurs, the Wilks brothers own the prized N Bar Ranch in Montana, which is known for its wildlife and fishery resources. Another new addition to the Land Report 100 presented by Fay Ranches is No. 96, Arthur Nicholas. The co-founder of Nicholas Investment Properties owns Wyoming’s historic Wagonhound Land and Livestock, an AQHA Ranching Heritage Breeder.

“America’s largest landowners continue to recognize land as a compelling asset, one whose numerous attributes go well beyond ROI,” said Eric O’Keefe, editor-in-chief of The Land Report. “It’s a story you’ll see again and again in the Land Report 100, one that features familiar faces and some new ones I’m sure readers will instantly identify.”

Copyright? 2013 RISMedia, The Leader in Real Estate Information Systems and Real Estate News. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be republished without permission from RISMedia.

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October 2014 Market Report from MLS

Milwaukee
Report from Multiple Listing Service, Inc.

Now that the baton is in grasp of the final quarter of our annual relay, it’s a good time to look back and reflect. This year has been spectacular for residential real estate. Robust gains in sales and prices were felt in many markets. More homes sold in less time for closer to asking price. While consumers have felt empowered by low prices and interest rates, sellers are starting to regain their footing. Seller confidence is crucial to refilled inventory bins ? which are still relatively sparse.
New Listings in the Milwaukee region increased 5.6 percent to 1,824. Pending Sales were down 23.1 percent to 913. Inventory levels shrank 4.4 percent to 7,886 units.
Prices got a lift. The Median Sales Price increased 6.1 percent to $174,000. Days on Market was down 17.7 percent to 82 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 11.1 percent to 5.9 months.
The economy continues to snail forward. The government shutdown had a modest impact on borrowing ? mostly centered on USDA and VA borrowers. Consumer confidence is central to ongoing recovery, and confidence was hindered by the shutdown. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic activity and impacts the likelihood for big-ticket purchases like homes and cars. Future shutdowns are unwelcome.
All data for the market reports comes from the Multiple Listing Service, Inc. and is powered by 10K Research and Marketing. You can follow this link: http://www.metromls.com/support/Market_Updates/index.html or visit www.metromls.com.

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Lower Limits Could Affect Markets

By Ken Fears Director, Regional Economics & Housing Finance National Association of REALTORS?

In early September, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the entity that oversees Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, gave notice that it would revise the conforming loan limits in an attempt to stimulate the private sector, specifically the private mortgage securitization (PLS) market. Though the reduction in the loan limits is expected to be modest, it could have more far reaching impacts at the local level and for affected borrowers.

Each year, the FHFA adjusts the national conforming loan limit, which defines the space within which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can finance mortgages. The national limit is $417,000, but that varies by county and can increase to $625,500 in high-cost markets. The FHA?s limits, which range from $261,050 to $725,750, are based off of the conforming limit, so the FHFA?s actions would impact FHA borrowers as well.

NAR research estimates that if the national conforming limit were lowered to $400,000, roughly 170,000 total mortgages and 60,000 purchase mortgages would have been impacted in 2012 (based on data from the FFEIC?s HMDA dataset). The total number was inflated due to the refinance boom in 2012. However, stronger price growth in 2013 has likely pushed more homebuyers toward the conforming limit. Most estimates have the impacted volume at roughly 3-5 percent nationally.

While the national figure may appear relatively small, the change could have a significant impact at the local level. The impact goes beyond the high priced markets on the coasts and would affect some smaller communities in the Midwest and South. Furthermore, several of the markets in the top 25 most impacted are in formerly distressed areas (e.g. Atlanta, Sacramento, Riverside-San Bernardino, Oakland and Phoenix). These are areas where FICO scores declined in recent years as a result of the economic and housing downturn and where investors have played an important role in their recovery. As prices rise, investors will pull back and it?s not clear that the PLS industry is currently ready to provide financing for the nascent homebuyers needed to fill the void. Some private mortgage insurers recently announced willingness to underwrite mortgages with FICOs between 620 and 680. It will be particularly interesting and instructive to see how lenders respond to this change. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?as well as the FHA?have new programs to help in these distressed areas, but they are less potent if reduced limits disqualify borrowers.

Beyond the distressed areas, borrowers pushed into the non-conforming, or from FHA to conventional-conforming market, may not have the same access to credit due to higher FICO and down payment requirements. Since rates are already at parity or better in the jumbo space and part of the conforming-conventional, if a borrower had sufficient credit quality or the down payment, they likely would have already migrated to the private sector. Similarly, the FHA has been underpriced by the private MIs at the middle and upper price echelons since the fall of 2012. Lowering the limits could create a binding equity or credit constraint for the remaining borrowers in this space.

Finally, it isn?t clear that lowering the limits will stimulate the PLS market. There are still a number of issues hindering the PLS market, including representation and warrants risk, the unfinished QRM rule, concerns about the QM rule, secondary market reform and lingering negative investor sentiment. Nor is it clear that bank portfolios will expand to sustain these borrowers.

Though well intended, a reduction in loan limits could crowd out many otherwise qualified borrowers. There may be a time when the PLS sector is ready, but it isn?t clear that PLS issuers are ready to take up those borrowers impacted by lowering the limits.

Ken Fears is the Director of Regional Economics & Housing Finance for the National Association of REALTORS?.

RIS Media Broker Report Article

Big investors buy up homes in key markets

Julie Schmit, USA TODAY 6:46 p.m. EDT October 28, 2013
Experts disagree on how much investor buyers have to do with the home price recovery. But investors remain very active in key markets as they pull back in others.

Home prices
(Photo: Danny Johnston, AP)
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Big investors buy 1 in 4 homes in some cities in September
Other markets see slowing investor interest
Big investors account for small part of housing market

Big investors continue to expand into more cities for single-family homes as they pull back in others.

Last month, institutional investors, who largely buy single-family homes to turn into rentals, accounted for about one in four home sales in Atlanta, Las Vegas, St. Louis and Jacksonville, data from RealtyTrac show.

They also accounted for a big chunk of sales in Charlotte and Memphis.

Price gains will likely follow the investor buyers, says John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, as they did in earlier hot investor markets such as Phoenix and Sacramento.

HOUSING MARKET: Pending home sales slip: Flat sales next year?

He speculates that investor buyers ? including institutional Wall Street buyers, individuals who flip homes for quick profits and mom and pop investors ? have driven much of this year’s home price appreciation.

CoreLogic data show prices up 12.4% in August year over year, but faster in areas favored by investors, like Phoenix and Sacramento, which were up 18% and 26% respectively.

“Investors were just smart. They saw that homes were undervalued. They jumped in and pushed prices back up to normal,” Burns says.

Big investors still account for a small part of the overall housing market. As a result, their impact on overall prices isn’t that great, said Richard Smith, CEO of real estate firm Realogy Holdings, at a Zillow housing forum Thursday.

Prices have also risen in areas that have had little investor activity, says Mike Orr, real estate expert at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Orr tracks the Phoenix market, which was one of the first targeted by investors.

In mid-2012, investor activity peaked in Phoenix, Orr says. Then, they accounted for almost 40% of home sales. Those investors would include small investors.

LENDERS: Home loans become a little easier to get

For this September, Orr says investors accounted for about 23% of sales. Historically, they’d be 15% to 20% of the market, he says.

While Phoenix home prices in August were up more than the national average, home price gains have been slowing this year, show seasonally adjusted price data from Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index.

A “cooling wave” in terms of demand has now settled in after a frantic spring, Orr says. Falling investor interest is playing a role, but lack of enthusiasm from regular buyers is more important because they’re more numerous, Orr says.

USA Today Article

Home Prices Climb in 88% of U.S. Cities

Home Prices Climb in 88% of U.S. Cities
By Prashant Gopal – Nov 6, 2013 10:14 AM CT

Prices for single-family homes climbed in 88 percent of U.S. cities in the third quarter as buyers competed for limited inventories that included fewer discounted foreclosures.

The median transaction price rose from a year earlier in 144 of 163 metropolitan areas measured, the National Association of Realtors said in a report today. A third of areas had double-digit increases.

Enlarge image Home Prices Climb in 88% of U.S. Cities as Recovery Spreads
A townhouse for sale in the Brooklyn borough of New York. Photographer: Craig Warga/Bloomberg

Enlarge image Potential Home Buyers
Potential buyers view a home under construction in South Barrington, Illinois. Home prices are extending a recovery across the country, fueled by a tight supply of listings and a smaller share of distressed sales, which drag down values. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Home prices are extending a recovery across the country, fueled by a tight supply of listings and a smaller share of distressed sales, which drag down values. The U.S. housing market had five months of inventory in the third quarter, down from 5.9 months a year earlier, data from the Realtors group show. Completed foreclosures in September plunged 39 percent from a year earlier, according to CoreLogic Inc.

?Most regions of the country are experiencing strong home-price appreciation off a low base,? Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York, said yesterday in a telephone interview. ?Cities with the biggest price appreciation are in places that had bigger busts.?

Price gains are at unsustainable levels, with cities such as San Francisco and San Jose, California, approaching records, Fitch Ratings said today in a report. Much of coastal California is more than 20 percent overvalued, the firm said.

Biggest Increases
The nationwide median price for an existing single-family home rose 12.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier to $207,300 the Realtors group said.

The best-performing areas were Sacramento, California, and Atlanta, where prices jumped 41.8 percent. They were followed by Las Vegas and Punta Gorda, Florida, which had a 31.9 percent gain. Other cities with large increases were Los Angeles, with 26.2 percent, and Phoenix, with 25 percent.

The areas with the biggest declines were all in Illinois, led by Peoria, where prices fell 13.9 percent from a year earlier. Following were Kankakee, with a 9.9 percent drop, and Rockford, with an 8.4 percent decrease.

Rising home prices and borrowing costs are causing some buyers to hold back. The average rate for 30-year fixed loans was 4.1 percent last week, up from a near-record low of 3.35 percent in early May, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.

Sales Slip
Contracts (USPHTMOM) to buy existing homes dropped the most in more than three years in September, the Realtors association reported last week.

?Rising prices and higher interest rates have taken a bite out of housing affordability,? Lawrence Yun, the group?s chief economist, said in today?s statement. ?However, we have the ongoing situation of more buyers than sellers in the market, so lower sales will help to take the pressure off home-price growth and allow them to rise slowly at a single-digit growth rate in 2014.?

San Jose was the most expensive market in the third quarter, with a median home price of $805,000, the Realtors said. Following were San Francisco, at $705,000, and Honolulu, at $679,800.

The most affordable areas were Toledo, Ohio, with a median price of $87,500; Rockford, at $88,900; and Decatur, Illinois, at $91,000.

To contact the reporter on this story: Prashant Gopal in Boston at pgopal2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kara Wetzel at kwetzel@bloomberg.net

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Mortgage rates drop to lowest level since June

Oct 24, 2013

Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped to their lowest level since the end of June, amid speculation that the Fed would delay winding down its stimulus program.

?Mortgage rates slid this week as the partial government shutdown led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve will not alter its bond purchases this year,? said Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac. ?The weak employment report for September added to this expectation.?

?The economy added just 148,000 jobs, which was below the market consensus forecast and less than the 193,000 jobs increase in August,? he added.

Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.13 percent with an average point of 0.8 for the week ending Oct. 24, down from 4.28 percent last week but up from 3.41 percent a year ago, according to Freddie Mac?s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans and one-year Treasury-indexed ARMs also all fell.

Original Article

– See more at: http://www.inman.com/wire/mortgage-rates-drop-to-lowest-level-since-june/#!
Source: Freddie Mac

Existing-Home Sales Down in September but Prices Rise

Media Contact: Walter Molony / 202-383-1177

After hitting the highest level in nearly four years, existing-home sales declined in September, but limited inventory conditions continued to pressure home prices in much of the country, according to the National Association of Realtors?.

Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million in September from a downwardly revised 5.39 million in August, but are 10.7 percent above the 4.78 million-unit pace in September 2012. Sales have remained above year-ago levels for the past 27 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a decline was expected. ?Affordability has fallen to a five-year low as home price increases easily outpaced income growth,? he said. ?Expected rising mortgage interest rates will further lower affordability in upcoming months. Next month we may see some delays associated with the government shutdown.?

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.49 percent in September from 4.46 percent in August, and is the highest since July 2011 when it was 4.55 percent; the rate was 3.47 percent in September 2012.

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $199,200 in September, up 11.7 percent from September 2012. This is the 10th consecutive month of double-digit year-over-year increases.

Distressed homes3 ? foreclosures and short sales ? accounted for 14 percent of September sales, up from 12 percent in August, which was the lowest share since monthly tracking began in October 2008; they were 24 percent in September 2012. Lower levels in the share of distressed sales account for some of the growth in median price.

Nine percent of September sales were foreclosures, and 5 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value in September, while short sales were discounted 12 percent.

Data from realtor.com,4 NAR?s listing site, show some of the strongest increases in listing price from a year ago are in the Detroit area, up 44.6 percent; Las Vegas, up 30.7 percent; and Sacramento, up 28.9 percent.

Total housing inventory at the end of September was unchanged at 2.21 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.0-month supply5 at the current sales pace, compared with a 4.9-month supply in August. Unsold inventory is 1.8 percent above a year ago, when there was a 5.4-month supply.

NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., said there are far-ranging consequences from the repeating stalemates in Washington. ?Just one impact of the recent government shutdown ? delays in tax transcripts needed for approval of mortgage loans ? put a monkey wrench in the transaction process and could negatively impact sales closings in next month?s report,? he said.

Thomas said flood insurance also is a concern. ?Realtors? report that approximately 10 percent of transactions in September were located in flood zones, and that nearly one out of 10 of those transactions were delayed or canceled due to concerns over rising insurance rates.? Notably higher flood insurance rates went into effect on October 1, and could impact future sales in flood zones.

The median time on market for all homes was 50 days in September, up from 43 days in August, but much faster than the 70 days on market in September 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 93 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 43 days, and non-distressed homes took 49 days. Thirty-nine percent of homes sold in September were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers accounted for 28 percent of purchases in September, unchanged from August, but down from 32 percent in September 2012.

All-cash sales comprised 33 percent of transactions in September, up from 32 percent in August, and 28 percent in September 2012. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 19 percent of homes in September, up from 17 percent in August, and 18 percent in September 2012. Last month, 74 percent of investors paid cash.

Single-family home sales slipped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in September from 4.75 million in August, but are 10.9 percent above the 4.22 million-unit pace in September 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $199,300 in September, which is 11.4 percent higher than a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 4.7 percent to an annual rate of 610,000 units in September from 640,000 in August, but are 8.9 percent above the 560,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $198,600 in September, up 14.2 percent from September 2012.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 2.8 percent to an annual rate of 690,000 in September, but are 15.0 percent above September 2012. The median price in the Northeast was $240,900, up 2.3 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 5.3 percent in September to a pace of 1.25 million, but are 12.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $158,400, which is 9.0 percent above September 2012.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 1.4 percent to an annual level of 2.10 million in September, but are 9.9 percent above September 2012. The median price in the South was $171,600, up 13.9 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 1.6 percent to a pace of 1.25 million in September, and are 7.8 percent higher than a year ago. With ongoing inventory restrictions, the median price in the West rose to $286,300, which is 16.8 percent above September 2012.

The National Association of Realtors?, ?The Voice for Real Estate,? is America?s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. For additional commentary and consumer information, visit www.houselogic.com and http://retradio.com.

NOTE: For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors? for data from local multiple listing services. Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau?s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample ? about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month ? and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to a seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR?s quarterly metro area price reports.

Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR?s Realtors? Confidence Index, posted at Realtor.org.

Realtor.com, NAR?s listing site, posts metro area median listing price and inventory data at: http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx.

Total inventory and month?s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month?s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

The Pending Home Sales Index for September will be released October 28 and existing-home sales for October is scheduled for November 20. The 2013 National Association of Realtors? Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, a large survey that evaluates the demographics, preferences, motivations, plans and experiences of recent home buyers and sellers, will be published November 4; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

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Staging Your Home For The Fall Season

Staging Your Listing for the Fall Season
by: HMS Home Warranty

The Fall season is a wonderful time:homes feel cozier and we all love to get out ourturtlenecksand favorite old sweaters to bundle up. While it seems the summer rush is over, there is still a strong group of buyers that are interested in getting a new home before the end of the year.

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Shutdown will stall home loans for thousands

Courtesy of Matthew Green/Courtesy of Matthew Green – The shutdown at USDA?s rural development loan program has cost Matthew and Natali Green the starter house they?ve been waiting to buy since last April.

By Lisa Rein, Published: October 4 E-mail the writer
Beginning next week, thousands of home buyers will be unable to get approvals for their mortgages because of the government shutdown, potentially undercutting the nation?s resurgent housing market.

Without paperwork from the Internal Revenue Service, the Social Security Administration and in many cases the Federal Housing Administration, banks and other mortgage lenders will be less willing to make loans, if they can make them at all. For instance, lenders rely on the IRS to confirm borrowers? income and on Social Security to confirm their identity.

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Every day that government offices remain shuttered will delay an ever-larger fraction of mortgage closings, industry leaders say, jeopardizing mortgage and interest-rate approvals and spooking sellers. About 15,000 new home mortgages and 18,000 refinancings on average are completed across the country each day.

On Friday, House Republicans continued to insist on changes to President Obama?s health-care program as a condition for funding the government. But with attention on Capitol Hill shifting to an Oct. 17 debt-ceiling deadline, there was no end in sight to the government shutdown, nor relief for prospective home buyers.

?Most people don?t really think about, ?Well my loan is going to be underwritten by a federal agency,??? said Marj Rosner, vice president and sales manager at Long & Foster, a real estate firm. ?But the government has a huge imprint here.?

Major lenders are scrambling to figure out whether they can risk making some loans without the federal paperwork and assessing whether they should require additional documentation from borrowers because the IRS has no one working who can verify income.

Many mortgages were able to close as scheduled this week because the paperwork was completed before federal employees were furloughed, but some home loans have already been frozen.

?The problem is going to grow in magnitude every day this shutdown goes on, because lenders? liability is at risk,? David Stevens, chief executive of the Mortgage Bankers Association and former head of the FHA, said after a conference call Friday with heads of a dozen banks.

Nor will the problem disappear as soon as the government reopens.

?Even if this were to get resolved in a week, you?ve got an enormous backlog,? said Eric D. Gates, president of Apex Home Loans in Rockville. ?It?s going to double or triple the effects in terms of delays.?

The approval of mortgage applications requires several interactions with the federal government that many home buyers may not know about. Lenders have become much more meticulous about following federal rules after the housing crisis that began in 2007, and are now more thorough in verifying the information on loan applications. These concerns were far less common when the government last shut down in 1995.

?The need for document checks and quality control just didn?t exist,? Stevens said. ?Today, we?re in a world of huge risk and regulatory requirements.?

Among the obstacles, it is furloughs at the IRS that could have the widest impact. Lenders routinely file a form with the IRS asking for a copy of a borrower?s tax returns. The purpose is to make sure that the buyer provided accurate income information.

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Are Dated Appraisals Holding Back the Recovery?

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Are Dated Appraisals Holding Back the Recovery?
By Andrew King

Some of the most beaten down real estate markets are finally experiencing that long-awaited bounce back from the crash. Cash offers are yielding more sales. Pent-up demand is driving prices higher. But something?s missing.

Brokers in the faster markets such as Nevada, California and Florida?where the soaring prices almost defied gravity leading up to the crash five years ago?are finding it hard to move all these homes even though there are plenty of willing buyers. While the homes are available, the mortgages are not. More specifically, they say, the appraisals are not.

While a would-be buyer could be more than qualified to pay back a $1 million loan for an Arizona McMansion, in many cases, the banks can?t sell them that mortgage?even if the loan officer wants to?because the appraiser won?t sign off on that $1 million valuation.

?It happens a lot in an escalating market,? says Gino Blefari president and CEO of Intero Real Estate Services, a brokerage in the red-hot San Francisco Bay area. ?You have to go back to the appraiser and say, ?look, there were 27 offers on the property. Now that we?re having more sales, we?re better.??

It?s becoming a heated issue across the country as low appraisals continue to squash real estate deals that already have the blessing of would-be buyers, sellers and banks.

At the heart of all the tension are the comparable properties, or ?comps,? that appraisers?who are independent even though they technically represent the bank during a real estate transaction?use to base their valuation. The system is designed to keep everything fair and square for the buyer and seller while limiting the banks? risk. However, conservative appraisals based on the most recent sales?deals made prior to the bounce?can inadvertently stall an otherwise healthy recovery.

To get around these appraisals, more and more buyers are using cash for the purchase and paying more than what they could have gotten with a mortgage. The practice has caught on so drastically?with cash deals accounting for 40 percent of all sales?that the latest national data shows a major reversal in the price of cash deals as they relate to mortgages.

According to RealtyTrac, the average sale price of cash deals has increased almost 10 percent from $331,762 in July 2012 to $362,617 in July 2013, while financed deals have dropped off from $350,136 in July 2012 to $303,265 in July 2013. Historically, cash deals have been relegated to lower-priced offers as they were seen as an incentive for sellers who were willing to take less money in exchange for a quick, stress-free (mortgage-free) closing. Today, all-cash bidding wars are becoming more common.

This influx of cash deals, however, doesn?t always make it into an appraiser?s comp pool, skewing market realities and becoming a point of controversy.

?Cash investors are very aggressive,? says Mark Stark, CEO of Prudential Americana Group. ?This segment began pushing away mom and pop who just wanted a place to live in.?

Stark has seen a huge increase in all-cash deals in Arizona and Nevada. While all-cash deals have usually comprised 7-10 percent of his business, he says that over the last 18 months, they have grown to 21.5 percent. A lot of this, he says, is due to institutional investors who have come into the market to take advantage of the low prices.

Speculation, bidding wars and rising home prices are generally seen as signs of a healthy economy, but Stark thinks that too many borrowers are being left out of the market due to overly conservative appraisals. The problem, he says, is that many appraisers are not taking these cash deals into account when they determine the value of a property ? even though they are perfectly valid comps.

Appraisers will often throw out unrealistically low sale prices, such as those that result from a foreclosure or an arm?s-length transaction, when conducting an appraisal. They also throw out prices that are unrealistically high. But many real estate agents don?t think this should include cash deals from institutional investors.

John Brenan, director of appraisal issues at The Appraisal Foundation, a private nonprofit recognized by the government as the source for appraisal standards and recommendations, says that while the appraisal industry is regulated, there are still a lot of gray areas when it comes to comps.

He says that high comps should be thrown out only if they don?t truly reflect fair market value. An institutional investor should not be disqualified as a comp just because they?re a fund or someone who is looking to lease or flip the property. Brenan says an unusually high cash sale would get thrown out if someone paid significantly higher than what others recently paid for surrounding properties without a good reason.

?If someone paid an extra $50,000 on a property because it?s the exact color they wanted,? says Brenan, that would not be a realistic example of the market and shouldn?t be counted as a comparable property in the appraisal.

On the other hand, appraisers shouldn?t be using foreclosures or REO properties as comps either, Brenan says. Still, a block full of short sales can?t just be ignored when gauging the marketplace.

?That (bad) sale in and of itself does not make a market, but it does play a role,? explains Brenan. ?Appraisers are not out to establish value. They?re out to reflect the marketplace.?

Brenan adds that appraisers should be looking at the most recent data available, but that might not necessarily include current events such as a big company expanding its workforce in the neighborhood or an inventory shortage. Part of the tension has to do with the fact that appraisals represent a fixed point in time ? what a house is worth on a particular day. It doesn?t always leave room for the greater economic trend.

?The appraiser is working off historical data,? Blefari says. ?If it?s a cash deal, they should use it as a comp.?

Blefari emphasizes that the market has so much pent-up demand right now that it will drive prices higher through the end of the year and beyond. He says the recovery is completely genuine and appraisals need to reflect that.

There is also a mechanism for appeal if someone wants to dispute an appraisal, and Blefari says he does it quite often.

Some states even have appraisal grievance boards that can serve as a mediator. For more information on appraisals, visit http://www.appraisalfoundation.org/

King_85x100Andrew King is an award-winning journalist with 15 years of experience with the Gannett newspaper company, appearing in The Journal News (Westchester, NY), Asbury Park Press and USA Today. He also contributes to The Real Deal, TheLadders.com and TechPageOne.com.

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Existing-Home Sales Rise, Limited Inventory Continues to Push Prices

National Association of Realtors – NEWS RELEASES
August Existing-Home Sales Rise, Limited Inventory Continues to Push Prices

WASHINGTON (September 19, 2013) ? Existing-home sales increased in August and reached the highest level in six-and-a-half years, while the median price shows nine consecutive months of double-digit year-over-year increases, according to the National Association of Realtors?.

Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million in August from 5.39 million in July, and are 13.2 percent higher than the 4.84 million-unit level in August 2012.

Sales are at the highest pace since February 2007, when they hit 5.79 million, and have remained above year-ago levels for the past 26 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market may be experiencing a temporary peak. ?Rising mortgage interest rates pushed more buyers to close deals, but monthly sales are likely to be uneven in the months ahead from several market frictions,? he said. ?Tight inventory is limiting choices in many areas, higher mortgage interest rates mean affordability isn?t as favorable as it was, and restrictive mortgage lending standards are keeping some otherwise qualified buyers from completing a purchase.?

Total housing inventory at the end of August increased 0.4 percent to 2.25 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.9-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 5.0-month supply in July. Unsold inventory is 6.3 percent below a year ago, when there was a 6.0-month supply. ?Limited inventory in some areas means multiple bidding remains a factor; 17 percent of all homes sold above the asking price in August, although 63 percent sold below list price.?

Data from realtor.com,3 NAR?s listing site, shows large declines in inventory from a year ago in Naples, Fla., down 23.5 percent; the Detroit area, down 23.3 percent; and the greater Boston area, down 20.7 percent.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.46 percent in August from 4.37 percent in July, and is the highest since July 2011 when it was 4.55 percent; the rate was 3.60 percent in August 2012.

The national median existing-home price4 for all housing types was $212,100 in August, up 14.7 percent from August 2012. This is the strongest year-over-year price gain since October 2005 when the median rose 16.6 percent, and marks 18 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases.

Distressed homes5 ? foreclosures and short sales ? accounted for 12 percent of August sales, down from 15 percent in July, and is the lowest share since monthly tracking began in October 2008; they were 23 percent in August 2012. Ongoing declines in the share of distressed sales are responsible for some of the growth in median price.

Eight percent of August sales were foreclosures, and 4 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value in August, while short sales were discounted 12 percent.

NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., said rising home values will encourage more people to sell. ?As the equity position of most homeowners continues to improve, some who have been on the sidelines will list their home for sale,? he said. ?Most of those owners also will be buying another home, but higher levels of new home construction going into 2014, combined with some reduction in demand from less favorable affordability conditions, will help to moderate price growth to more sustainable levels.?

The median time on market for all homes was 43 days in August, little changed from 42 days in July, but is much faster than the 70 days on market in August 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 98 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 52, days and non-distressed homes took 41 days. Forty-three percent of homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers accounted for 28 percent of purchases in August, down from 29 percent in July and 31 percent in August 2012.

All-cash sales comprised 32 percent of transactions in August, up from 31 percent in July and 27 percent in August 2012. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 17 percent of homes in August, compared with 16 percent in July and 18 percent in August 2012. Last month, three out of four investors paid cash.

Single-family home sales rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.84 million in August from 4.76 million in July, and are 12.8 percent above the 4.29 million-unit pace in August 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $212,200 in August, which is 14.4 percent higher than a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 640,000 units in August from 630,000 in July, and are 16.4 percent above the 550,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $211,700 in August, up 17.7 percent from August 2012.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast were unchanged at an annual rate of 710,000 in August but are 12.7 percent above August 2012. The median price in the Northeast was $268,800, up 7.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 3.1 percent in August to a pace of 1.32 million, and are 18.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $166,100, which is 10.0 percent above August 2012.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 3.8 percent to an annual level of 2.19 million in August and are 13.5 percent above August 2012. The median price in the South was $181,000, up 14.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 2.3 percent to a pace of 1.26 million in August but are 7.7 percent higher than a year ago. With the tightest regional inventory conditions, the median price in the West rose to $287,500, which is 18.8 percent above August 2012.

The National Association of Realtors?, ?The Voice for Real Estate,? is America?s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. For additional commentary and consumer information, visit www.houselogic.com and http://retradio.com.

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NOTE: For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors? for data from local multiple listing services. Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.

1Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.
Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau?s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample ? about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month ? and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

2Total inventory and month?s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month?s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

3Realtor.com, NAR?s listing site, posts metro area median listing price and inventory data at: http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx.

4The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to a seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.
The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR?s quarterly metro area price reports.

5Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR?s Realtors? Confidence Index, posted at Realtor.org.

The Pending Home Sales Index for August will be released September 26 and existing-home sales for September is scheduled for October 21; release times are 10:00 a.m. EDT.

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